Election 2012 | Explaining the Polls: Nate Silver Explains His Projections | The New York Times




Nate Silver explains his poll predictions and why he has Obama projected to win by 90%.

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Election 2012 | Explaining the Polls: Nate Silver Explains His Projections | The New York Times
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Election 2012 | Explaining the Polls: Nate Silver Explains His Projections | The New York Times

Comments 42

  1. MSN is depicting a close race in FL, with Obama leading at 94% of votes counted. With 29 electoral votes, it has me on edge. If there were a god to be praying to right now, I would.

  2. Is Nate giving us a style statement, or is he losing some sleep? He looks so tore back, like he's taking this election harder than the candidates. Then again, he does have a $2,000 wager riding on this election….tentatively, and his reputation.

  3. It was reported yesterday (or the day before) that IF Romney loses the election, the Republicans will be blaming Hurricane Sandy, saying that if the storm hadn't occurred, Romney would have surely won.

    I know this is intended as an offense to Obama supporters, however, if it turns out this way, I won't necessarily be disappointed about their opinion that it took "an act of God" to make Romney lose, because then they would have to admit that even God, himself, didn't want Romney to be President.

  4. Nate Sliver predicted the election is ain't off by much on the electorals. When I saw he gave Obama over a 90% percent chance to win i was like OBAMA WON slept good the whole night without watching the election

  5. He got Florida wrong, he had it for Romney. But, his accuracy is still way beyond everyone else's, and he deserves the golden reputation he's come into for that.

  6. the problem with those predictions is always that if many people are aware of them, and it's not totally hopeless, they demotivate the ones who think they're going to win anyway to go vote and motivate some to vote for the probably losing candidate they like when they normally wouldn't have. so if you wanna know how accurate predictions are, i think the less people read them, the more accurate they can be.

  7. Both a blessing and a heavy burden to bear at the same time, I would imagine…

    Next election all eyes will be on Mr. Silver. I will be watching with an eager eye.

  8. Republicans will someday accept math and science as truth…….They may even start to wonder about the existence of a " god " who created the universe, but who never shows himself….

  9. Nate Silver is smarter than any so-called "pundit" or "political analyst" on MSNBC, CNN, Fox or any other news channel because he looks solely at the numbers. He doesn't make any broad assumptions or attempt to extrapolate things from events. He just looks at polls. And that's why I trust him

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